As the Senate takes up Impeachment, it is important to understand just how badly the whole process is going for the Democrats’ in the Midwest. Polling has shown that many voters were open to the idea of investigating President Trump, but now that they have seen the unfair Impeachment process, they are turning against the Democrats. Poll after poll is revealing how President Trump is gaining a stronger footing for re-election in key swing states. In Wisconsin, Trump now has his highest Job Approval rating of all time! Democrats have themselves to blame for increasing the odds of Trump’s second term through their Beltway focused Impeachment.
Winning the Midwest is critical for whichever party wants to control the White House. Democrats infamously had their 2016 blue wall destroyed in the Rust Belt and upper Midwest.
Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania (46 combined electoral votes) all went for Trump in 2016 and Trump barely lost Minnesota (10 electoral votes). Assuming nothing else changes on the electoral map, Democrats would need to win Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania to defeat Trump. So, it is important to look here at how views of the President are changing due to the Impeachment proceedings.
In Wisconsin, the Marquette University Law School Poll has had very good news for President Trump. His 48% Job Approval Rating is the highest on record with the poll. Trump won Wisconsin in 2016 when his Favorability was at 35% with Likely Voters, according to the final Marquette Poll of 2016.
Prior to the start of Impeachment, more Wisconsin voters supported Impeachment and removal. In the October Marquette Poll, before public hearings began, 44% favored impeachment and removal from office, with 51% opposed. In the November poll, support for impeachment began to crater and in December only 40% supported Impeachment.
To conservatives in Wisconsin, this Leftwing overreach is nothing new. Wisconsin demonstrated a similar lesson when Democrats pushed a recall of Governor Walker in 2012, despite no evidence of wrongdoing. Walker ended up winning the June 2012 recall election with a larger margin of victory than he had initially won in 2010. Exit Polling from the Recall Election found that most Wisconsinites thought a recall should only happen for official misconduct and it was often called a political witch hunt. The Marquette Polling on Trump shows Wisconsin voters have a similar disgust for Democrats trying to remove the President.
Other Midwestern states are showing large opposition to Impeachment as well. In Michigan, a poll found that 51% of Michiganders are opposed to Impeachment and only 44% support it. Quarterly Polling from Firehouse Strategies in the three battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin found President Trump gaining ground in head to head matchups and is now beating every Democrat. That same poll found that a majority of likely 2020 voters surveyed in those battleground states do not support impeaching and removing Trump from office. In Minnesota, which is polled less frequently, the latest poll from is from November and it only find support for Impeachment in the mid-40’s.
Public radio in Minnesota has picked up on another problem for the Democrats: that their impeachment obsession is hurting them down ballot. Minnesota Public Radio (MPR) talked to a life long Democrat Don Woetehoff, who is motivated not just to vote for Trump in 2020, but will no longer support a Democrat for Congress, in this case freshman Democrat Congresswoman Angie Craig. “I voted for her, but I won’t vote for her again,” Woestehoff told MPR. “She’s done.” Similar story in Michigan, where NPR found a self-described JFK Democrat (who voted for Trump in 2016 and continues to back him) who says Democrats are making a huge mistake in pushing Impeachment with the 2020 election so near in the future.
Impeachment efforts are backfiring on Democrats in the Midwest. They are causing their House Majority to be in jeopardy as vulnerable House Members have to defend a vote to remove the President a plurality in these states voted for. The polling shifts are likely the natural response to the Democrats blatant political power play to hurt Trump because they fear they can’t beat him in 2020. President Trump has to be smiling at the Democrats’ major miscalculation as his path to re-election is becoming clearer.